Introduction

On 27 October Israelis voted in what is considered their highest turnout for decades.  To many this election marks a crucial turning point in Israeli domestic policy. The Prime Minister’s main political opponent, former Israel Defense Forces Chief Gadi Eisenkot, holds a more liberal worldview. He supports an independent judiciary, a free press and a professional civil service. Should he win, he will likely try to reverse Netanyahu’s efforts to curtail each institution’s independence.

But an Eisenkot victory is unlikely to change Israel’s foreign policy or approach to the Palestinians. Almost all of Israel’s Jewish political parties, Eisenkot’s included, are opposed to Palestinian statehood, not just Netanyahu’s Likud. They all believe that Israel’s brutal was on Gaza was just and necessary. And almost all of them think that Israel was right to attack Iran and to establish and create what its government and military call “security zones”, occupied territory in Lebanon and Syria.  

The rest of the world, of course, does not share Israel’s view. Polls show that Israel’s international approval ratings have hit new lows and that Israel is guilty of major human rights violations, with many stating that the country has committed genocide

Exit polls from the three mainstream Israeli television networks gave the two blocs around 51 seats each in the 120-member Knesset, well below the 61 needed to govern. As per the exit polls Israeli the Arab parties; United Arab List, also known as Raam, and the Joint List are expected to win 17 or 18 seats combined, driven by high turnout among their base.

The country is thus likely to experience a period of horse-trading, as both blocs will try and win over the other’s partners.

Possible Scenarios

Coalition.  The main parties will immediately begin negotiations to try to reach a 61-seat majority, but the path forward is far from clear.  President Isaac Herzog will name a candidate who has the best chance to form a government, not necessarily the party with the most seats.

The Arab Israeli parties, particularly Raam, have voiced openness to working with Eisenkot’s bloc, but the bloc has kept them at arm’s length, perceiving their support as a liability during the campaign.

For Netanyahu’s bloc, however, there is no place to pick up more seats after some smaller right-wing parties failed to meet the vote threshold for entering Parliament.

However, negotiations can take time, with parties insisting on parochial interests. After the previous election in November 2022 it took Netanyahu 58 days to form his government

Minority Government.  If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but through support on an ad hoc basis from other lawmakers.

In this scenario, lawmakers from the Arab Israeli parties who make up 20 percent of the population could play a critical role. Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, has been a kingmaker in the past, having been the first Arab party to join an Israeli government in a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021 -2022.

Another Arab movement, the Joint List, has said it would be unlikely to join a coalition government outright, but has offered to provide a “safety net” for anyone that ousts Netanyahu from power.   Political commentator Tal Elovitz said that an especially high Arab turnout “indicates a strong desire for partnership.”

However, Eisenkot has not even entertained the possibility publicly, and Netanyahu told Jewish voters in his campaign that a vote for the opposition could bring Arabs into government.

National Unity Government. Considering Israel’s extreme polarisation, the prospect of a national unity government could theoretically create a less extreme government.

Israeli commentators have often mentioned the possibility of a national unity government in which Netanyahu would jettison his provocative far-right allies as well as ultra-Orthodox parties and team up with Eisenkot, who shares Netanyahu’s views on many security issues. This coalition would exclude Arab parties.

A poll published on 16 October found that 55 percent of Israelis would prefer a national unity government over new elections if the vote did not produce a clear majority.

In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, reached a power-sharing agreement after three elections in less than a year. The agreement stipulated a rotation of the Prime Ministership, but fell apart after a year, triggering another election.

A unity government in the present situation would however face strong opposition from the Eisenkot bloc, which has built its campaign around ousting Netanyahu, casting him as unfit to lead.

Deadlock and New Elections. If no candidate manages to form a government, Israel will have to return to the polls. Israel held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 due to the inability of politicians to forge a lasting coalition.

The Opposing Candidates

If the exit poll projections hold, Netanyahu's nationalist-religious coalition, which at its height held 68 seats, would fall far short of the 61 seats needed to govern. But it is unlikely that his influence will end even if Israelis vote him out of office.

Over the course of his tenure as Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, Netanyahu has reset the terms of the country’s national security politics. His persistent rejection of Palestinian statehood has helped push the idea out of mainstream debates. Netanyahu’s hardline position on Iran has been just as consistent as his hardline attitude toward the Palestinians.

Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, has emerged as Netanyahu's strongest challenger, stressing his security credentials while positioning himself as a centrist domestically. He entered politics only four years ago and joined Netanyahu's cabinet after the 2023 Hamas attack, but quit eight months later, criticising the Prime Minister's leadership. 

Eisenkot offers a break with Netanyahu's leadership and far-right allies, but not with his approach to security. He opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas' military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He says Israel's response to 07 October that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities is ‘a failure because Hamas remains in charge’. However, he is expected to slow settlement expansion in the West Bank and crack down on settler violence.

Conclusion

The candidate designated by the President will, in principle, have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension, although there are other procedural ways to prevent an immediate calling of new elections.

The deadlock could work in Netanyahu's favour, leaving him in office as a caretaker prime minister during what are likely to be prolonged coalition negotiations or even until another election can be held.

Fundamentally, Israeli leaders across the board now consider control of territory to be essential to national security, whether in Gaza, the West Bank, Southern Lebanon, or Syria. It is increasingly about how Israeli predominance should be exercised. Unfortunately, this will not make Israel, the region, or the world better off as war seems to have become the new normal. 

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh, VSM (Retired)

Major General Jagatbir Singh is an Armoured Corps Officer who commanded the First Armoured Division. He served in varied terrains and tenanted important command, staff and instructional appointments including a UN Peace Keeping Mission in Iraq and Kuwait. He co-authored ‘Armour 1971’ and edited ‘Valour and Honour’.