In any war, there are first political and strategic aims.  From these flows, the military aims and the military target selection. One of the most important aspects to be considered is the likely response by the enemy. Let us consider what the strategic and political aim of the USA is. From what is available from open media reports, it was the regime change in Iran and not allowing Iran to develop and have nuclear weapons.

Based on these, the USA military aims and targets would be to take out Iran's top military and Supreme decision-making authority, destroy communication links between Iranian authorities and forces, neutralise Iranian air defences and Iranian offensive capabilities like missiles and launching sites. Let us discuss one by one.

Strategic and Political Aims

The USA's first political aim of effecting Regime change is nowhere near being achieved. The expected revolt against the regime is nowhere visible. Is the statement by Trump indicating boots on the ground in Iran a clear indication of this. In my opinion killing of Ayatollah Khamenei seems to be having opposite effect. Now there is division in the Iranian society. One mourning other rejoicing. Likely scenario of civil war. Remember, American aims of regime change and ushering democracy in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria have miserably failed. The American second strategic aim of not allowing Iran to have nuclear bombs is actually admitting the failure of bombing with long-range heavy bombers and the heaviest bombs on their nuclear sites, and at that time announcing the destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities, or is it just a facade to justify the attack?

Military Aims

The USA and Israel have definitely taken out the top Iranian leadership, but have failed to achieve the loss of command and control. It seems Iranians have seamlessly moved to well-planned secondary leadership, and the prosecution of the war has been continued. The disruption of communication does not seem to be very effective. The only military objective achieved is total suppression of Iranian air defences. This has given complete air superiority to the US and Israeli Air Forces. Neutralisation of Iranian offensive capabilities is far from being achieved. Even after 4 days of attacks on Iranian missile sites, Iran continues to launch missile salvos and hundreds of drones. Every US base in the Middle East has been attacked and damaged.

The US  seems to be surprised by the Iranian retaliation, disrupting and attacking economic targets such as busy airports in the Middle East, refineries SA and oil terminals, and almost closing the Strait of Hormuz, for where 40% of the world's oil and natural gas transits. Americans, by nature, like short wars with their technological superiority and overwhelming force. The very fact that the US president is talking about war for more than 4 weeks is a clear indication that American strategic and tactical calculations have gone wrong, and they need to quickly recalibrate their plans.

Commodore Rajiv Dhamdhere, NM, (Retd)

Commodore Rajiv Dhamdhere, NM, (Retd) has commanded three ships, namely CGS Vigraha, INS Ranjit and INS Mysore, both destroyers. His most significant appointments have been Director Indian Navy Tactical Evaluation Group and Director Policy and Plans in the Integrated Defence Staff.  He retired in 2003 after 30 years of Service