The Indian Air Force needs to induct at least 36-40 fighter aircraft every year for the next few years to prevent its fighter fleet from declining further, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh said on October 3. The IAF faces a major fighter jet shortage, while having only 29 squadrons at present against an authorised strength of 42.

However, experts say the bigger question is not only how India fills the immediate shortage, but how it strengthens the system that develops and produces fighter jets in the country. 

Speaking to Chakra News, Gp Capt Rajiv Narang (Retd) said that India must not repeat what happened with the HF-24 Marut, the country’s first indigenous fighter aircraft. “We are at an inflexion point. It is a Marut moment again,” he said, pointing to the need to stay with indigenous fighter programmes and improve them instead of abandoning them when problems emerge. 

For the unversed, India was forced to abandon the Marut programme due to engine troubles. 

The assessment comes as the Indian Air Force marks its 94th anniversary on October 8, with the force facing a growing gap between its authorised fighter strength and the number of operational squadrons.

The Tejas Mk1A is expected to be a key aircraft for rebuilding the IAF’s fighter strength, but its induction has been delayed. The IAF has ordered 180 Mk1As, with the first squadron now expected by March 2027, while the remaining 97 aircraft are scheduled to arrive through 2033. To bridge the gap, the IAF is also pursuing 114 MRFA fighters and considering additional Su-30MKIs, while Tejas Mk2 and AMCA remain longer-term indigenous programmes.

The immediate test is the Tejas Mk1A programme. India has ordered 180 Mk1A aircraft in two contracts, but deliveries have faced delays. Narang said the delays need to be examined technically rather than explained broadly. The process should identify exactly whether the problem lies in radar integration, certification, testing, foreign systems, approvals or other areas. He estimated that around 50-60 new systems and upgrades have been introduced between the Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A. Each new system has to be integrated, tested and certified, making the transition more complex than simply adding a few new pieces of equipment.

Narang said India should also adopt a clearer block development approach for its fighter programmes. Foreign aircraft such as the F-16 have evolved through different blocks, allowing new capabilities to be introduced in stages. A similar approach, he said, could help India avoid repeatedly changing requirements during development and reduce delays.

He also pointed to manpower and testing infrastructure as important bottlenecks. Projects such as the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA will require sufficient technical manpower if development is to be accelerated. India also needs stronger testing facilities for propulsion, components and flight testing. Narang said India should also learn from programmes that have worked. The Advanced Light Helicopter, or ALH, went through several versions and took decades to mature. The Light Combat Helicopter benefited from that experience and moved faster. “You have to really build on what you develop,” he said.

Foreign fighter purchases can help bridge the immediate squadron gap, but Narang said they cannot replace the indigenous pipeline. Aircraft such as the Rafale can add numbers and capability, but India remains dependent on the foreign manufacturer for major future changes. A stronger indigenous programme would give the IAF greater control over upgrades and future variants, highlighting the importance of indigenous development.

He also called for a larger role for the IAF itself in aircraft development. India’s Navy has a dedicated ship design structure that allows it to play a direct role in warship development. Narang said the IAF should consider creating a similar ‘Aerospace Design Bureau’.

“If Air Force wants to become an aerospace power, then they should have an aerospace design bureau,” he said. The IAF, he added, needs to move from “being only a facilitator and user of aircraft to becoming a development partner”.

The fighter shortage therefore presents India with two linked challenges. The IAF needs more aircraft in the near term, but the country also needs to make its indigenous fighter development system faster and more reliable. For Narang, the current gap should be used to fix the weaknesses in that system rather than simply treating the shortage as a numbers problem.

Savio Rodrigues

Savio Rodrigues is a Research Analyst at Escape Velocity MediaWorks Pvt Ltd and writes for Chakra News on Defence, Geopolitics, National Security. He holds a Master’s degree in International Relations from the University of Mumbai.