Russia’s 2025 combat drone surge

Russia launched 34,000 attack drones and decoys into Ukraine in 2025, nearly nine times the number from the same period last year. Moscow has deployed this year; Ukraine said it had knocked down 88 per cent by shooting them or electronically scrambling them. That figure is down from the nearly 93 per cent Kyiv reported in 2024, according to a report from the New York Times.

On September 7, 2025, Russia launched its largest drone and missile attack on Ukraine since the war began. The assault involved more than 800 drones and missiles and targeted multiple cities, including Kyiv, with a government building in the capital being struck for the first time in the conflict. This attack caused multiple casualties and widespread damage to civilian and residential structures. Russia launched another deadly drone attack on September 9. Ukraine’s air force said Russia fired 810 drones and decoys, as well as 13 cruise and ballistic missiles. They added that nine missiles and about 60 drones had made it through their air defences and landed in Ukraine. NATO allies Poland and Romania both scrambled fighter jets to respond to Russian drone and missile attacks in Ukraine on September 13 2025. On 9 September 2025, 19 to 23 entered Poland's airspace after allegedly being launched from Russia.

If the 2023-24 Russia-Ukraine War was about the surge in artillery shells, 2025 is all about drones. The drones are manufactured by the Yelabuga drone factory. It is an unmanned aerial vehicle and a loitering munition factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, near Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. The facility is operated by the Russian company Albatross. It develops drones for military use in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and is largely staffed by college students, including minors.

Within the Special Economic Zone, the drones are reportedly referred to as "boats". "Big boat" refers to the Shahed-136, called the "Geran-2" in Russian service, while "small boat" refers to the Shahed 131, called the "Geran-1" in Russian service. The Shahed-136 has a maximum weight of 240 kg, a length of 3.5 m, and a wingspan of 2.5 m. It is powered by the Iranian MADO MD-550, likely reverse-engineered from the German Limbach 550E. The Russian Geran-2 drone is based on the Shahed-136 and shares the same specifications.  The project as a whole has been called "Project Boat." Other code words used by engineers include "bumpers" to refer to explosive payloads, and "Ireland" or "Belarus" to refer to Iran. The agreement between Iran and Russia has been described as a franchise by The Washington Post, in which Iran shares project documentation, locally produced or reverse-engineered components, and technical knowledge.

The facility was built near the Kama River, allowing direct transportation via ship from Iran through the Caspian Sea. The plant was built with materials provided by Iran. The plant is operated by Albatross, a Russian company that previously made agricultural technologies and now produces drones for use in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Albatross has developed long-range reconnaissance drones for use in the war, called "Albatross" or "Albatros M5" drones. Before and during the plant's development, Iran supplied loitering munitions for Russia to use in the invasion of Ukraine. The factory opened in July 2023.

Russia initially intended to build 6,000 drones by summer 2025 at a rate of 310 drones per month, operating the factory 24 hours a day. Following that, Russia planned to produce an additional 6,000 Shahed attack drones per year, in addition to surveillance drones. It predicted the cost of production of one Geran-2 would be US$48,000, or 25% of the cost to purchase. By April 2024, Western sources reported the plant had already produced 4,500 Shahed drones, and that, due to upgrades, the cost of production per unit had increased to around US$80,000. Russian soldiers were trained to operate the drones in Syria by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, each of which was designated a terrorist organisation by several nations.

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