The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has shown how blocking a single waterway can send shockwaves around the world. Now, imagine the Strait of Malacca being disrupted.

China would probably be among the biggest casualties. Because, much of the energy and many of the critical resources that China imports travel from the west, through the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malacca, before reaching Chinese ports. Its distant-water fishing fleet also operates across these waters. A problem here and the consequences could reach far beyond factories and power stations to everyday goods and even what people eat..

So, what happens if that lifeline is cut?

That’s the puzzle the Mandarins in Beijing have spent decades resolving. And they’ve come up with quite a few solutions.

First, pipelines. China now receives oil and gas overland from Russia, Central Asia and Myanmar, bypassing Malacca. China has also accumulated substantial oil stockpiles, developed technologies that convert coal into chemicals and rapidly expanded renewable energy and electric vehicles.

But despite this, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), China imported around 11 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2024, with roughly 92% arriving by sea. That is a massive vulnerability. 

Then comes the Belt and Road Initiative. Through investments in ports, railways and transport corridors across Eurasia and Southeast Asia, China is trying to build alternative routes for its energy supplies and exports. Its port network also gives Beijing greater access to overseas markets and strategic locations.

But here is the catch: how much protection can these alternatives actually provide?

Pipelines cannot replace the scale and flexibility of ocean shipping. Stockpiles eventually run down. And alternative routes have limited capacity, higher costs and their own political risks. Even rerouting ships through the Sunda or Lombok straits means longer, more costly journeys.

Now consider this in context of a conflict over Taiwan. A military confrontation could expose Chinese shipping to interdiction, disrupt exports, trigger sanctions and send insurance costs soaring. Beijing’s efforts to secure overseas ports and alternative corridors could also heighten tensions with neighbouring countries.

A 2024 study published in Resources Policy estimated that a 20% disruption of oil imports through Malacca lasting 90 days could cause economic losses of 62.7 billion yuan impacting what everyday Chinese people eat. This is a modelled scenario, not a prediction of losses from a complete blockade.

So, has China solved its Malacca Dilemma? Not quite. It has built buffers, alternatives and some measure of resilience. But it cannot simply move its location. For all its pipelines, ports and stockpiles, the revenge of geography remains difficult to escape for China.
 

Sources: US Energy Information Administration, China Country Analysis and World Oil Transit Chokepoints; Resources Policy (2024), study on the economic impacts of oil supply disruption through the Strait of Malacca.

Deepak Bhadana

Over the past decade, Deepak Bhadana has built expertise in multimedia storytelling, with a focus on military conflicts, insurgencies, international relations, the defence industry, and occasionally, wildlife and environmental issues.