How October 7 changed West Asia

Three years ago, on October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel that killed around 1,200 people and around 250 being taken hostage. The attack did not remain confined to Israel and Gaza. It set off a chain of conflicts that spread across West Asia and brought Israel into direct or indirect confrontation with Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and other Iran backed groups such as the Houthis.

On that day, Hamas fighters broke through the Gaza border and entered Israeli territory by land, air and sea. They attacked several people and a music festival, penetrating several kilometres into Israel. The scale and nature of the assault exposed a major failure in Israel's intelligence and security assessment.

Israel responded with a large military campaign in Gaza. Israel heavily bombed the Gaza Strip which has killed more than 75,000 people till date and displaced as many as 2 million within Gaza. What began as a war between Israel and Hamas soon opened other fronts. Hezbollah in Lebanon began attacks on Israel, leading to a major confrontation between the two sides. Israel later expanded its military campaign against Hezbollah, including strikes that killed several senior leaders of the group.

The conflict then moved closer to a direct confrontation between Israel & Iran. Israel and Iran had fought a covert war for decades, but the post October 7 escalation brought the two countries into direct military exchanges. The two countries fought a brief 12-day war. Israel launched surprise air strikes under Operation Rising Lion on Iranian military and nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Iran responded with Operation True Promise, launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and suicide drones at Israeli cities and military bases. Missile and drone attacks between Israel and Iran turned what had largely been a shadow conflict into an open confrontation.

On June 21, 2025, the United States directly joined the conflict by using bunker-buster bombs to strike underground Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The United States was also drawn deeper into the conflict because of its alliance with Israel and its confrontation with Iran. Washington provided military and diplomatic support to Israel while also becoming directly involved in the wider Iran conflict. On February 28, 2026, the United States launched operation ‘Epic Fury’ against Iran which was followed by the assassination of Iran’s then supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The war between the US & Iran continues till date.

The effects were not limited to Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Syria was also affected by the wider regional conflict. Iran's ability to support its regional allies and maintain its networks in Syria came under pressure as the conflict expanded. The regime of Bashar al Assad's collapsed, which was replaced by the caretaker government led by Ahmed-as-Sharaa.  

The Houthis in Yemen also got involved by their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and their confrontation with Israel and Saudi Arabia added another front to an already expanding regional crisis. Around 10-15% of total international maritime trade passes daily through the Red Sea corridor. The Red Sea thus became a major security concern, affecting one of the world's important maritime trade routes.

The conflict also had broader diplomatic and economic consequences. Before October 7, the United States was pushing for greater normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor or IMEC was announced in September 2023, was also expected to connect India with Europe through the Middle East. The war in West Asia disrupted this diplomatic and economic momentum.

Three years later, October 7 can therefore be seen as the starting point of a much wider chain reaction. The attack triggered the Gaza war, contributed to the expansion of the Israel Hezbollah conflict and helped bring the long running Israel Iran confrontation into the open. The United States, along with the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and other regional actors were subsequently drawn deeper into the crisis.

The October 7 attack in southern Israel triggered a chain reaction of overlapping conflicts that eventually led to multiple wars and opened several fronts across West Asia – between Israel & Gaza, followed by a blowback in Lebanon & Syria, Israel & Iran and later between the United States & Iran.  

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