As someone who has spent years dealing with these networks on the ground, my first thoughts went immediately to the modus operandi.

1.  A High-Explosive Terror Attack

Let’s dispel the confusion surrounding CNG or EV battery fires. I was clear the moment I saw the visuals: this was an explosive device. The evidence is undeniable. 

Magnitude and Reach: A standard gas leak doesn't shatter cars 100 meters away. A CNG blast is typically contained within 15 meters. The velocity of the air displacement caused by this explosion indicates a high-powered device, a classic VBIED (Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device).

ANFO Signature: The lack of traditional shrapnel—ball bearings or nails—points directly to a chemical explosive, likely Ammonium Nitrate Fuel Oil (ANFO). The perpetrators knew the glass and metal of the surrounding vehicles would serve as lethal shrapnel, amplifying the kill zone.

Investigative Discipline: I must stress the abject failure in crime scene management. When journalists, locals, and even police contaminate the site, we risk losing the single piece of evidence—a partial VIN, a scraped-off metal fragment—that could unravel the entire conspiracy. We need immediate, rigorous training on this front.

2.  The Attack Was an Execution, Triggered by Our Success

This attack was not an arbitrary strike; it was a desperate, reactionary measure.

Connection to Faridabad: The precise raid in Faridabad, which seized tons of ammonium nitrate and neutralized a module, immediately put the remaining sleeper cells on high alert. The bomber, part of a network connected to the Pulwama Medical College, knew his number was up the moment his associates were caught.

The Suicide Mission: Why did he wait three hours at the parking spot? He wasn't waiting for a better target; he was likely waiting for a final directive, or more profoundly, praying and coming to terms with his suicide mission. Once he drove out, he was ready.

Symbolism of the Red Fort: The choice of the Red Fort, where the Tiranga flies, is a deliberate, symbolic gesture of defiance. This was a targeted action to maximize political messaging and civilian casualties during the peak 7 PM traffic hour.

3.  A Deep Roster of 40-50 Terror Cells are Active

People must understand the sheer scale of the threat. There are easily 40 to 50 such terror cells operating across India.

The Ecosystem: These are not all bomb-makers. A ‘cell’ is a group assigned a specific task, handled by a single controller. They are diversified: some handle logistics and funding, others manage radicalization in schools and social infrastructure, and others are operational, like this one.

Jaish Fingerprints: While various groups operate (ISI, ISKP), the strong reliance on high explosives gives this attack the clear signature of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). We must follow these source trails rigorously.

4. Pakistan resorting to asymmetric war

The Pakistani Deep State, under its current regime, has no option but to revert to the old playbook of asymmetric warfare.

Conventional War is Impossible: They cannot engage us conventionally; that era is gone. Their only path is to bleed us through constant acts of terror, a strategy tried by Generals Kayani and Musharraf decades ago.

A Defining Difference: Are we going back to the pre-2008 serial blast era? I say no. Our security setup is far better, and the infrastructure of these networks has been solidly broken over the last decade. But we cannot rule out random, high-impact attacks like this one, because we simply do not have the security apparatus to monitor every vehicle and every person constantly.

5.  The Call for National Resilience and Retaliation

Pakistan has deliberately put us in a spot. Following the PM's "act of war" warning, this attack cannot go unanswered.

The Need for Retaliation: If we fail to respond, we only invite further attacks. I don't know what the government will do—another surgical strike, an ARID (Anti-Radicalization/Infiltration Drone) action—but something has to be done that is unforeseen and decisive.

The Crucial Missing Ingredient: However, as a nation, we need to ask ourselves a hard question: Do we have the appetite for war? We are quick to demand 'War! Kill them all!' But the moment we see one casualty—one jet crash—the public will question the entire military action. If we are to meet this violence, the public must be ready to accept the inevitable losses that come with combat. Only then can our leaders lead effectively.

This is a stark warning. We are a different India than we were in 2008, but vigilance, resolve, and a unified national will are paramount. We will not be bullied.

Watch the full discussion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6K-VCVuavM&t=1s

Major Manik. M Jolly (Retired)

Major Manik M. Jolly (Retired) is a decorated veteran of Gorkha Regiment and Military Intelligence. He has operated extensively in Kashmir in counterterrorist operations and also commanded intelligence and counterintelligence detachments. He is also a defence and geopolitics expert and writes for many reputed publications.